Friday, May 25, 2012

Quick Word on Gold and Other U.S. Markets

Consumer Confidence should stay about 76 today, which is unchanged. This is a four year high, but remember that 100 is the baseline.

Gold is down recently, Stocks and Bonds are down or sideways. However, the U.S. market appears to be receiving an influx of European investment in dollars. The Gold market is being pushed down by a strengthened dollar vs the Euro. The Gold market is doing well vs other currencies.

Reports have been surfacing of European banks runs and ATM's being turned off. The risk of the Euro is real. It is so real that the even our dollar looks attractive. Greece is being talked about in the context of leaving the European Union, which I think is unlikely. It is more likely that compromises will be reached, but the fears are real.

The European Union itself is being talked about in the light of breaking up.

When Europeans get their cash, much of it will be invested in the stock markets. Some will go to the Asian markets, but most will come over here. This is an obvious occasion for a bump in the stock market. The question remains what will happen when President Obama starts printing more money to get reelected.

Note: This is not to say that this flight from the Euro is a recipe for recovery in America.

It is still painfully obvious that because of U.S. national debt levels, the Fed can no longer significantly raise interest rates. This will eventually drive down savings, but the influx of European money may delay this.  More consequently, bond yields are likely to stay very low and thus interest rates will also stay low.

9:15 A.M. UPDATE: Consumer Confidence actually rose to 79.3. Let's hope that this indicator is accurate!
Michigan’s reading for May contrasts with the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, which has lost ground after reaching a four-year high a month ago.

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