Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Forcible Rape Jumps 26.76% in San Diego (Updated)

The FBI released voluntarily reported crime statistics for cities and the nation. The Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January-June 2012 shows a slight national uptick in violent crime of 1.9% from 2011. In San Diego, rape is up by 26.76% and overall violent crime has increased by 7.87%.

San Diego has not reported a significant number of additional murders, 40 during the first half of 2012 compared with 39 during the previous year. While some Police point out that area murders in 2012 have included several gang related killings, the overall rate of murder in the county is nearly flat.

FBI Crime Stats, By the NumbersEarlier this year we reported on a 26% increase in rapes per the San Diego Association of Governments, but the two statistics are fundamentally different. The Union Tribute points to the rape definition from earlier this year:
The number of rapes increased by 26 percent, with 376 reported from January to June. At least part of the increase can be attributed to a wider definition of rape that went into effect in January. The new definition includes any gender of victim or perpetrator, as well as instances in which the victim is incapable of giving consent because of temporary or permanent mental or physical incapacity.
The FBI statistics use "Forcible Rape," a term you may recall from the 2012 election. The media did not report the fact that this is an important distinction in crime reporting and legislation.

Forcible rapes in the San Diego area increased from 213 during the first half of 2011 to 270 during the same period in 2012. This is a similar percentage increase, but the numbers differ drastically.

FBI U.S. Crime Statistics Year by Year
A year over year trend in FBI crime statistics shows that this is the first uptick in violent crime in several years. There are a couple explanations at work.

Some pundits are blaming the poor economy, but some of the San Diego areas hardest hit by the economy are not showing a correlation. The same problem arises when left wing pundits point to gun possession. El Cajon, California shows a 24.8% decrease in violent crime, a 20% decrease in rape and a 24.8% decrease in assaults. El Cajon is an area associated with gun ownership in San Diego.

2012 FBI Crime Statistics San DiegoCarlsbad, Escondido and Temecula have seen sharp increases in reported forcible rapes. These areas are all similar in population size compared to El Cajon, but are more secluded. "Open Carry" was outlawed in California beginning in January 2012. This may point out that scarcely populated areas without the protection of firearms are targeted by criminals.

Another explanation may be prison realignment (AB109). 10 News reports:
San Diego Police Chief William Lansdowne said gangs are growing as a result of the state's prison realignment with California wardens shifting tens of thousands of inmates to county jail cells or providing early release.

"We're seeing about a thousand additional people out of prison and they don't have quite the level of oversight they would normally have and it's pretty clear that it's having some effect on the gangs and they're being more aggressive than before," Lansdowne said.

Gang violence is up 34 percent, he said.
Anecdotal evidence supports the Police Chief, but this is a difficult case to make. City by city across California the results of prison realignment are mixed per the Sacremento Bee.
"The state is not collecting data on this," Krisberg said. "I think it is scandalous."
My theory is that prison realignment, illegal immigration, police budgetary restrictions and the banning of Open Carry laws have produced a net effect. Where people are not armed and police are understaffed, crime is exploding. Elsewhere, criminals now understand that Californians are defenseless and our criminal system is not capable of punishing them for crimes when caught.

While this report is focused on the latest FBI report, 2012 full year statistics on murder is being locally reported:
The murder rate in San Diego was up almost 20 percent in 2012 from the year before, and in San Diego County, the numbers increased by almost 23 percent.
The FBI murder statistics for San Diego during January to June 2012 show an increase of only 8% (25 to 27), which leads to the conclusion that these problems must be growing...and we are legally prohibited from protecting ourselves.


Police chiefs from around San Diego confirmed my suspicion that the increase in crime is due to the "Open Carry" ban. UT San Diego's Pauline Repard issued a report that three police chiefs from San Diego jumped to support President Obama's 23 executive orders on "gun violence." Can you guess which three?
“I was pleasantly surprised when I heard him take a comprehensive approach,” said Carlsbad Police Chief Gary Morrison. “I liked the way he talked about the medical community and the impact of video games on kids, and money to law enforcement and schools to craft emergency response plans.”
“You could not find a bigger supporter of the president than myself today,” said San Diego Police Chief Bill Lansdowne. “It makes my officers safer and it’s going to make the community safer.”
Chula Vista Police Chief David Bejarano said most people in law enforcement welcome the additional measures the president is proposing.
Maybe this is a biased view and the hardest hit police chiefs are simply grasping for solutions to problems. However this looks like anti-gun police chiefs, and Sheriff Gore if you read the full story, reduce the ability of law abiding citizens to defend themselves and their property. For these San Diego police chiefs overall violent crime is up 8.32% and forcible rape is up 37.16%. The FBI report shows a 6.29% increase in violent crime and a 3.08% uptick in forcible rape for the other San Diego police chiefs.

In Carlsbad forcible rape skyrocketed 275% and violent crime overall is up 73.42%. On the bright side, there were no murders in the first half of 2012 and auto theft was slightly down. Robbery, aggravated
assault, property crime, burglary and larceny-theft increased.

Chula Vista shows a 16% decrease in reported violent crime due to less aggravated assaults. The FBI report also show a 14.3% increase in forcible rape and increased burglaries, auto theft and property crimes.

Hopefully unrelated, yet interestingly, Chula Vista's police chief David Bejarano had reported ties to Mexican drug gangs and has been accused of writing bad checks.

The city of San Diego shows a 9.55% increase in violent crime and the numbers look to be getting worse as described above.

A full spreadsheet of statistics with my calculations is available here. The stats have been added as an enclosure to this post.

CBS News 8
UT San Diego
10 News
Sacremento Bee

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