CDC & FBI Data: Gun Bans = Violent Crime

Introduction

Earlier this month, we debunked the Associated Press portrayal of a recent "gun deaths" study in our post Another Fake Gun Control Study.

The study had some good information and some misleading information. One useful piece of information is data on gun control measures in all 50 states compiled by the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence. Yes, we know they are far-left "gun grabbers", but this data can be used to shed light on whether gun laws help or hurt society.

The aforementioned study also used CDC data from 2007-2010. We decided to compare this data with FBI data from the same period (*1). We then used FBI data as a basis to correct some short comings of the debunked study.

Once a base comparison was established, we expanded the study to include all violent crime statistics per the FBI.

Modifications from the study published in JAMA are as follows:

1. FBI data was substituted for missing data in Vermont, North Dakota, and New Hampshire.
2. The District of Columbia was added to the data set.
3. The Brady Legislative Strength Score (median) for the District of Columbia was estimated in comparison to other gun banning states. Due to the District of Columbia v. Heller decision in 2008 (*2), the score was reduced by one from our estimate. Our final estimate is 22. 
4. Suicides are not included as "Homicides."
5. We entered this project with only one concern, the truth. While all human beings are biased and prone to fallacy, we have no illusions to our short comings in the field of statistics. We also have no concern for professional pride, funding, or political agenda. While I am personally pro-choice in the realm of self defense, what follows is pure unadulterated data.

Comparing CDC and FBI data.

We can only speculate why these numbers are different. The FBI Murders data is higher than the CDC "gun homicide" rate per 100,000 people. Sixty-seven percent of murders in the USA involve guns per the UN:

In 2009, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 66.9% of all homicides in the United States were perpetrated using a firearm

So, we expect the FBI gun and non-gun related murder numbers to be higher than gun "homicides" per the CDC. However, the simple averages for the 51 data points are 3.83/4.9  (CDC/FBI). This leads one to believe 78% of murders in the US involve firearms.

It appears that the CDC numbers, used to promote gun control by the AP, are significantly overstated, the FBI murder statistics are understated or a combination of both. We could do a more elaborate comparison, but with such a large discrepancy between the UN and US data the truth would still elude us.

For our purposes, it does not matter. Both numbers will be included on all graphs to give you a visual representation of the available data. (click to enlarge)

By including Washington, D.C. we bring additional clarity to the gun control debate. It appears that in both CDC and FBI data, a few sensible gun laws reduce murder/homicide but additional laws are counter-productive. Fellow San Diego Local Order of Bloggers author Beers with Demo explored a broader representation of this legal reality in a recent post entitled "It's as if we've run out of good ideas..."

Exit question: We may try to expand on this later, but can a Republic reach a point where they've got pretty much all their basis covered but since they maintain a full time legislative body that is sent to the nation's capitol to do something, they wind up being far more counter-productive than not? 

The data further suggests that there are two optimum points for gun legislation. First, when both police and private citizens are armed, murders are minimized. When both an empowered public right to self-defense and fear of law enforcement cooperate to reduce crime, criminals face a difficult task. The next minimum is upon entering a seeming police state with assured criminal justice, but where citizens offer much less resistance to criminals.

Finally, once gun laws become extreme, such as total bans of lawful gun ownership, criminals are assured  defenseless victims. Avoiding law enforcement ensures a successful criminal career. Due to harsh criminal penalties, witnesses may then be shot in the attempt to avoid criminal punishment.

More Gun Laws Leads to More Violent Crime

In the age of the internet, we don't like to read long posts, so let's keep this direct. Below we explore robbery, rape, and total FBI reported violent crime. The results are mixed, but may be the best data you have seen in your life regarding gun control. We are damn proud of the following, even where it does not fit my political philosophy.

Gun Laws vs Robbery and Rape

Increased gun laws clearly increase violent robbery but there is an apparent minimization for forcible rape. (click to enlarge)

We are using polynomial order 4 smoothing in these graphics to show more detail than a sloped line. If you look closely at the graphic, robbery is almost a straight line in the wrong direction as more gun laws are passed.

Forcible rape falls with a few "common sense" gun laws, then increases slightly as women lose the ability to defend themselves. Once legislative strength becomes very high, forcible rape appears to fall. Complete gun ownership bans then coincide with increased forcible rapes.

There may be additional rape related laws or other factors that coincide with gun laws in a near police state.  The data does suggest that a near police state reduces forcible rape to about 18 per 100,000 per year.

New York (*1) and Connecticut are the data points creating the apparently low number of forcible rapes. A quick review to see if warmer weather skewed the results with regard to forcible rape did not find an obvious indication.  We leave this question for you to ponder.

Gun Laws vs Total Violent Crime

Overall violent crime information from the FBI is heavily influenced by aggravated assaults. This seems to be a type of crime badly influenced by excessive gun laws. It makes sense, people are less likely to get into fights with armed citizens.

The following graph is damning of strong gun control legislation and serves as my conclusion to this study. (click to enlarge)

Conclusion

A few gun control laws are reasonable for public safety. As additional laws are put in place they become counter-productive. As a near police state is enacted, violent crime falls to an average level. When gun bans are enacted, violent crime increases rapidly.

If you are a professional statistician or wish to check my work contact me via twitter.

Sources

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr-publications
http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal.html
http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1661390

Notes

*1) In 2012, the FBI changed the definition of "Forcible Rape." Because of this definition expansion, which now includes rapes of males and other non-consensual sexual acts, it came to light New York, Chicago and other progressive strongholds under reported or could not be included in FBI statistics for prior years.

U.S. to Expand Its Definition of Rape in Statistics:

For example, the New York Police Department reported 1,369 rapes in 2010, but only 1,036 were entered in the federal figures. However, the police department in Chicago, which had nearly 1,400 reported sexual assaults in 2010, refused to discard cases that did not fit the narrower federal definition when reporting its crime statistics; as a result, the F.B.I.’s uniform crime report — which reported 84,767 forcible rapes that year — did not include any rapes from that city.

The new "Forcible Rape" definition is:

“The penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim.”

This change will likely show massive increases in rape reporting in FBI statistics starting with 2012.

*2) District of Columbia v. Heller. After the gun ban in Washington D.C. was repealed, murder rates fell 43.2% by 2011. During the same period, murder rates in Chicago oscillated then ended up 1.9%.

City	2007 Murder Rate	2010 Murder Rate	2011 Murder Rate
Chicago	15.6	15.2	15.9
Washington D.C.	30.8	21.9	17.5

Update 3/27/2013:

Added link to data.

Forcible Rape Jumps 26.76% in San Diego (Updated)

The FBI released voluntarily reported crime statistics for cities and the nation. The Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January-June 2012 shows a slight national uptick in violent crime of 1.9% from 2011. In San Diego, rape is up by 26.76% and overall violent crime has increased by 7.87%.

San Diego has not reported a significant number of additional murders, 40 during the first half of 2012 compared with 39 during the previous year. While some Police point out that area murders in 2012 have included several gang related killings, the overall rate of murder in the county is nearly flat.

Earlier this year we reported on a 26% increase in rapes per the San Diego Association of Governments, but the two statistics are fundamentally different. The Union Tribute points to the rape definition from earlier this year:

The number of rapes increased by 26 percent, with 376 reported from January to June. At least part of the increase can be attributed to a wider definition of rape that went into effect in January. The new definition includes any gender of victim or perpetrator, as well as instances in which the victim is incapable of giving consent because of temporary or permanent mental or physical incapacity.

The FBI statistics use "Forcible Rape," a term you may recall from the 2012 election. The media did not report the fact that this is an important distinction in crime reporting and legislation.

Forcible rapes in the San Diego area increased from 213 during the first half of 2011 to 270 during the same period in 2012. This is a similar percentage increase, but the numbers differ drastically.

A year over year trend in FBI crime statistics shows that this is the first uptick in violent crime in several years. There are a couple explanations at work.

Some pundits are blaming the poor economy, but some of the San Diego areas hardest hit by the economy are not showing a correlation. The same problem arises when left wing pundits point to gun possession. El Cajon, California shows a 24.8% decrease in violent crime, a 20% decrease in rape and a 24.8% decrease in assaults. El Cajon is an area associated with gun ownership in San Diego.

Carlsbad, Escondido and Temecula have seen sharp increases in reported forcible rapes. These areas are all similar in population size compared to El Cajon, but are more secluded. "Open Carry" was outlawed in California beginning in January 2012. This may point out that scarcely populated areas without the protection of firearms are targeted by criminals.

Another explanation may be prison realignment (AB109). 10 News reports:

San Diego Police Chief William Lansdowne said gangs are growing as a result of the state's prison realignment with California wardens shifting tens of thousands of inmates to county jail cells or providing early release.

"We're seeing about a thousand additional people out of prison and they don't have quite the level of oversight they would normally have and it's pretty clear that it's having some effect on the gangs and they're being more aggressive than before," Lansdowne said.

Gang violence is up 34 percent, he said.

Anecdotal evidence supports the Police Chief, but this is a difficult case to make. City by city across California the results of prison realignment are mixed per the Sacremento Bee.

"The state is not collecting data on this," Krisberg said. "I think it is scandalous."

My theory is that prison realignment, illegal immigration, police budgetary restrictions and the banning of Open Carry laws have produced a net effect. Where people are not armed and police are understaffed, crime is exploding. Elsewhere, criminals now understand that Californians are defenseless and our criminal system is not capable of punishing them for crimes when caught.

While this report is focused on the latest FBI report, 2012 full year statistics on murder is being locally reported:

The murder rate in San Diego was up almost 20 percent in 2012 from the year before, and in San Diego County, the numbers increased by almost 23 percent.

The FBI murder statistics for San Diego during January to June 2012 show an increase of only 8% (25 to 27), which leads to the conclusion that these problems must be growing...and we are legally prohibited from protecting ourselves.

Update:

Police chiefs from around San Diego confirmed my suspicion that the increase in crime is due to the "Open Carry" ban. UT San Diego's Pauline Repard issued a report that three police chiefs from San Diego jumped to support President Obama's 23 executive orders on "gun violence." Can you guess which three?

“I was pleasantly surprised when I heard him take a comprehensive approach,” said Carlsbad Police Chief Gary Morrison. “I liked the way he talked about the medical community and the impact of video games on kids, and money to law enforcement and schools to craft emergency response plans.”

“You could not find a bigger supporter of the president than myself today,” said San Diego Police Chief Bill Lansdowne. “It makes my officers safer and it’s going to make the community safer.”

Chula Vista Police Chief David Bejarano said most people in law enforcement welcome the additional measures the president is proposing.

Maybe this is a biased view and the hardest hit police chiefs are simply grasping for solutions to problems. However this looks like anti-gun police chiefs, and Sheriff Gore if you read the full story, reduce the ability of law abiding citizens to defend themselves and their property. For these San Diego police chiefs overall violent crime is up 8.32% and forcible rape is up 37.16%. The FBI report shows a 6.29% increase in violent crime and a 3.08% uptick in forcible rape for the other San Diego police chiefs.

In Carlsbad forcible rape skyrocketed 275% and violent crime overall is up 73.42%. On the bright side, there were no murders in the first half of 2012 and auto theft was slightly down. Robbery, aggravated
assault, property crime, burglary and larceny-theft increased.

Chula Vista shows a 16% decrease in reported violent crime due to less aggravated assaults. The FBI report also show a 14.3% increase in forcible rape and increased burglaries, auto theft and property crimes.

Hopefully unrelated, yet interestingly, Chula Vista's police chief David Bejarano had reported ties to Mexican drug gangs and has been accused of writing bad checks.

The city of San Diego shows a 9.55% increase in violent crime and the numbers look to be getting worse as described above.

A full spreadsheet of statistics with my calculations is available here. The stats have been added as an enclosure to this post.

Sources:
CBS News 8
FBI
UT San Diego
10 News
Sacremento Bee