Gallup Predicts Big Obama 2012 Presidential Election Loss

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Gallup's 2011 annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers are out and they agree with Timothy Geithner's assessment of the 2012 election. If President Obama wins states where he held a net positive approval rating for 2011, Obama will lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee by 323 to 215 electoral votes.

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.

Gallup provides additional information via the Presidential Approval Center. According to this resource, Barack Obama currently, Jan. 23-29, 2012, holds 53% approval of the 18-29 age group. This approval number declines through the age groups until reaching 37% for the 65+ crowd.

Post Script

Traditionally, grandparents are the wise, teachers for the young. In human history, the advent of longer lives has allowed the oldest and wisest of our society to pass on wisdom to the newest members. These Gallup numbers may be reflecting a disconnect in the traditional family structure.